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Top Horse Analytics

Top Horse Analytics: 12/21/2021 Weekly Statistics


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AQU - active
BEL - inactive
CD - inactive
DMR - inactive
FG - active
GP - active (fall/winter)
GPS - inactive (spring/summer GP)
KEE - inactive
LRL - active
MTH - inactive
OP - active
PIM - inactive (uses LRL/PIM combined data base)
SA - suspended
SAR - inactive
TAM - active
TP - active

ALL - All surfaces and track conditions
DirtDRY - Dirt surface with "fst" or "wf" conditions
DirtWET - Dirt surface with NOT "fst" or "wf" conditions
TurfDRY - Turf surface with "fm" or "hd" conditions
TurfWET - Turf surface with NOT "fm" or "hd" conditions

Pink colored cells indicate 0.85 to 0.90 ROI. (good)
Yellow colored cells indicate 0.90 ROI to 1.00 ROI. (better)
Green colored cells indicate above 1.00 ROI. (profitable)

Conditional Top Horse refers to the Top Horse when it matches conditions that are profitable over the past year - ROI greater than $1.00

Synthetic races are combined with turf race statistics since arguably they race more like turf than dirt. Keeping them separated would fragment the yearly data base for a track and create an insufficient number of races to analyze for each surface.









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How are these statistics produced? 

At the very start of a year for a track, the previous year's data base is analyzed during which race calculation parameters for future races are optimized and stored in a parameter file. 

Each week after the start, a track's data base is rebuilt by programmatically adding the previous week's data to the data base and removing the oldest week's data from the data base. Then an analysis is run  to re-optimize race calculation parameters. This means that statistics will vary week to week due to the changed data base. During the coming year, THA will sometimes be upgraded with the latest performance improvements prior to weekly processing. This also contributes to the statistics changes seen weekly.

After each weekly analysis run, a statistics pass is made to determine which of several hundred conditions are profitable. These are flagged in the track's parameter file. Most profitable conditions are compounds consisting of two or more conditions.

When a race is calculated  for a track, the best profitable stats from the parameter file for the top horse are displayed on its entry line. You can see some of these races and statistics daily in our Free Pick(s).

Questions are welcome such as "Why use an 'always current' data base rather than a static one?".
Answer: After years of developing THA, it became apparent that "What have you done for me lately?" also applies to THA horse racing results. Other systems may have different answers and solutions.

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