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Top Horse Analytics: 05/28/2021 Picks and Results - MTH


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TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v12.21.03.29b)

Track: MTH
Start Of Statistics - 07/03/2020
Past Number of Races - 476

WinPC   $1ROI   HiPayoff   Bet Types
38.03 0.85   8.20   Favorites
32.84 0.77 10.80   Morning Line Favorites
33.40 1.02 38.40   Top Horse (with profitable conditions)

Complete Statistics Provided at THA Weekly Statistics

Contact us at Facebook for help or to report issues: Top Horse Analytics

The Win% and ROI columns below are the win percents and return on investments that the top horse
has performed in the past year for associated compound conditions in a race. The expectation is
that these conditions will perform as well in the future.

An ROI less than 1.01 indicates that no profitable conditions exist for this entry when it's the top rated
horse. Also, be aware that abnormally high payoffs may inflate the ROI so look for a high Win% and Occurs to go
with that high ROI as your selection.

These stats are only good for the top rated horse whether it's the original (100.0000) or the top horse
resulting from scratches. Every horse in a race may have Occurs, Win%, and ROI stats in case it becomes the
top rated horse.


horse name(b+) - Blinkers On
horse name(b-) - Blinkers Off

05/28/21, MTH, Race 1, 5.00 ET
05/28/21,MTH,1,6F [Dirt] 1:07:02 CLAIMING. Purse $26,500. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since March 28 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000, For Each $2,500 To $25,000 1 lb. (Races Where Entered For $22,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occurs Win% ROI
100.0000 6 Nora Radd 4/1 Ferrer J C Delgado Jose H. JFL 63 41.27 1.22/$1
099.8003 5 Tap the Barrel 5/2 Navarro C J Potts Wayne W 102 45.10 1.59/$1
099.3758 7 Overdressed 3/1 Hernandez C J Potts Wayne E 102 45.10 1.59/$1
097.6457 2 Cause to Dream 3/1 Ocasio L M Gonzalez Claudio A. 157 39.49 1.30/$1
096.3297 4 Hightime Valentine 7/2 Reyes L R Rodriguez Darien TSC 102 45.10 1.59/$1
093.6070 1 Empires First Lady 15/1 Panaijo J Cash Russell J. 233 32.19 0.89/$1
092.9744 3 Bahama Breeze 20/1 Mejia T B Hogan William J 102 45.10 1.59/$1
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 33.96, ROI 1.07/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -0.1997
[Category]Condition
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Was Favorite(not entry)


05/28/21, MTH, Race 2, 5.30 ET
05/28/21,MTH,2,1M [Dirt] 1:33:04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $50,000. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since April 28 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since March 28 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 (Maiden Claiming or Races Where Entered for $14,000 or Less Not Considered in Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occurs Win% ROI
100.0000 6 Firenze Freedom 7/5 Baez J Breen Kelly J. JEC 157 39.49 1.30/$1
099.3696 3 Sense a Million 7/2 Ocasio L M Taylor Joseph TFL 102 45.10 1.59/$1
097.7499 5 West Side Girl 2/1 Castillo I Hollendorfer Jerry 102 45.10 1.59/$1
097.0358 4 Miss Marley 4/1 Hernandez C J Matz Michael R. S 74 32.43 1.24/$1
096.5329 1 Oceano Rosso 15/1 Torres J Hogan William J 102 45.10 1.59/$1
096.0738 2 Reina La Kelsy 20/1 Mejia T B Ovando Melvin Moises W 102 45.10 1.59/$1
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 33.96, ROI 1.07/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -0.6304
[Category]Condition
[All Dirt] Not Second Race After 45 Days Off


05/28/21, MTH, Race 3, 6.00 ET
05/28/21,MTH,3,6F [Dirt] 1:07:02 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,500 (includes up to $12,500 NJB - New Jersey Bred Enhancement). FOR REGISTERED NEW JERSEY BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since April 28 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since March 28 Allowed 4 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $10,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occurs Win% ROI
100.0000 3 Jersey Jewel 3/1 Torres J Sweezey J. Kent SFEL 233 32.19 0.89/$1
098.5736 7 Your Pal 5/2 Ferrer J C Crowell Susan L. J 102 45.10 1.59/$1
098.3171 8 Alta Velocita 4/1 Mejia T B Simoff Andrew L. T 233 32.19 0.89/$1
096.6664 4 Wicked Jane 6/1 Ocasio L M Gonzalez Claudio A. 157 39.49 1.30/$1
096.5527 6 Takeittocomittee 5/1 Coa K J Huston Rory K. 233 32.19 0.89/$1
096.4330 2 Ashley's Hope 8/1 Hernandez C J McBurney Patrick B. WC 74 32.43 1.24/$1
095.2608 5 Girl Powder 12/1 Castillo I Delgado Jose H. 233 32.19 0.89/$1
093.0206 1 Twisted Deeds 10/1 Montalvo C Huston Rory K. 233 32.19 0.89/$1
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 33.96, ROI 1.07/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -1.4264
[Category]Condition



05/28/21, MTH, Race 4, 6.30 ET
05/28/21,MTH,4,6F [Dirt] 1:07:02 CLAIMING. Purse $21,000. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 28 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $5,000 (Races Where Entered For $4,000 Or Less Not Considered In Eligibility).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occurs Win% ROI
100.0000 1 Kosciuszko 5/2 Navarro C J Potts Wayne W 50 36.00 1.18/$1
099.3316 4 It's a Risk 4/1 Baez J Breen Kelly J. JC 102 45.10 1.59/$1
097.1767 7 Successful Zip 9/2 Torres J Hogan William J 233 32.19 0.89/$1
096.3986 6 Johnny Obvious 3/1 Montalvo C Asmussen Steven M. TSEL 157 39.49 1.30/$1
095.4928 3 Philly(b+) 6/1 Castillo I Camejo Jose M. F 233 32.19 0.89/$1
093.4050 2 No Hitter 15/1 Panaijo J Popovich James A. 233 32.19 0.89/$1
092.8562 8 Sparty 12/1 Hernandez C J Penaloza Miguel 233 32.19 0.89/$1
092.2737 5 Free Flayme(b-) 15/1 Mejia T B Carvajal. Jr. Luis 102 45.10 1.59/$1
090.5463 9 Cliffy 10/1 Reyes L R Mc Allen John P. 157 39.49 1.30/$1
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 33.96, ROI 1.07/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -0.6684
[Category]Condition
[Dirt Not_MdnMClm] Last Race Weight Is Equal To Today


05/28/21, MTH, Race 5, 7.00 ET
05/28/21,MTH,5,1M [Turf] 1:32:04 STAKES. Jersey Derby. Purse $100,000. FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS. By subscription of $100 each, which should accompany the nomination, $500 to pass the entry box and, $1,000 to start. The owner of the winner to receive $60,000, $20,000 to second, $10,000 to third, $5,000 to fourth, $3,000 to fifthand $2,000 to sixth through last. Weight: 121 lbs. Non-winners of a sweepstakes in 2021 allowed 2 lbs.; $30,000 twice in 2021, 4 lbs.; $30,000 once since May 1, 2021, 6 lbs. (Maiden, Claiming and State Bred Allowance races not considered.) The winning owner to receive a trophy. Closed Friday, May 14, 2021 with 28 nominations. Two $2,000 supplemental nominations, which included all fees, were made at time of entry, Tuesday, May 25, 2021. (Rail at 36 feet).
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occurs Win% ROI
100.0000 7 It Can Be Done 5/2 Ferrer J C Sacco Gregory D. JF 103 26.21 1.42/$1
099.7286 1 It's a Gamble 3/1 Baez J Breen Kelly J. WC 23 39.13 1.36/$1
099.6518 4 Indian Lake 6/1 Ocasio L M Ness Jamie TSL 150 42.00 1.26/$1
099.0112 6 Sifting Sands (GB) 4/1 Reyes L R Brown Chad C. 103 26.21 1.42/$1
098.9354 8 Riptide Rock(b+) 7/2 Torres J Hollendorfer Jerry 23 39.13 1.36/$1
098.7381 9 Pickin' Time 3/1 Breen Kelly J. E 129 44.19 1.10/$1
098.5254 5 Hot Blooded 6/1 Castillo I David Carlos A. 103 26.21 1.42/$1
097.0635 3 Spectatorless 20/1 Navarro C J Potts Wayne 103 26.21 1.42/$1
096.7988 2 Bringing the Heat 20/1 Mejia T B Stephens John D. 103 26.21 1.42/$1
Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - Win% 20.00, ROI 0.44/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -0.2714
[Category]Condition

If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occurs Win% ROI
100.0000 7 It Can Be Done 5/2 Ferrer J C Sacco Gregory D. J 57 43.86 1.42/$1
098.6465 1 It's a Gamble 3/1 Baez J Breen Kelly J. WC 102 45.10 1.59/$1
098.3277 9 Pickin' Time 3/1 Breen Kelly J. E 57 43.86 1.42/$1
097.4456 4 Indian Lake 6/1 Ocasio L M Ness Jamie TSFL 102 45.10 1.59/$1
096.5731 8 Riptide Rock(b+) 7/2 Torres J Hollendorfer Jerry 57 43.86 1.42/$1
096.2803 6 Sifting Sands (GB) 4/1 Reyes L R Brown Chad C. 157 39.49 1.30/$1
093.0909 2 Bringing the Heat 20/1 Mejia T B Stephens John D. 57 43.86 1.42/$1
092.7299 5 Hot Blooded 6/1 Castillo I David Carlos A. 102 45.10 1.59/$1
092.6341 3 Spectatorless 20/1 Navarro C J Potts Wayne 57 43.86 1.42/$1
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 33.96, ROI 1.07/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -1.3535
[Category]Condition
[All Categories] Race Age Not 3Up


05/28/21, MTH, Race 6, 7.30 ET
05/28/21,MTH,6,1M 70Y [Dirt] 1:38:04 CLAIMING. Purse $19,000. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since March 28 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $7,500, For Each $500 To $6,500 1 lb.
. . . .
Best in race flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, Win%, and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Best Occurs Win% ROI
100.0000 1 Speechin N Teachin 5/2 Ocasio L M Gonzalez Claudio A. FL 157 39.49 1.30/$1
099.9419 5 Village Preacher 3/1 Reyes L R Rodriguez Darien TS 102 45.10 1.59/$1
098.5607 3 Market 3/1 Castillo I Ryan Derek S. JC 102 45.10 1.59/$1
098.1216 2 Exxtop 5/1 Torres J Sweezey J. Kent W 233 32.19 0.89/$1
094.2021 4 Allied Invasion 7/2 Mejia T B Brown Bruce R. E 102 45.10 1.59/$1
093.5658 6 I See the Stars 8/1 Glass D Potts Wayne 233 32.19 0.89/$1
Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - Win% 33.96, ROI 1.07/$1
Rating gap to 2nd horse -0.0581
[Category]Condition
[All Dirt] Not Second Race After 45 Days Off


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